What we're building
Every week, somewhere in the world, a political decision gets made, an economic number comes in, or a geopolitical situation shifts — and before the news has fully processed it, a market has already moved.
That market isn't a stock exchange. It's a prediction market: a place where people put real money behind their beliefs about what's going to happen. And increasingly, those markets are getting things right before the rest of us catch up.
Consensus exists to surface what those markets are saying — and to make it legible to anyone who doesn't have time to watch them themselves.
What you'll get each week
One short email — readable in five minutes — covering:
3 markets that moved this week, connected to news you already recognize
What the movement means in plain language, not trader jargon
One market to watch — something the market is pricing that the news cycle hasn't caught up to yet
That's it. No hot takes. No forecasts. No telling you what to think. Just a clear, consistent window into what the collective intelligence of prediction markets is saying each week.
Where to start
The weekly email is the main event. But if you want to dig in before the next issue lands, here are three short tracks worth pointing you toward — pick whichever matches where you are with this stuff.
🟢 New here? Start with the basics.
If you've heard the term but couldn't fully explain how a prediction market actually works:
Prediction Markets for Beginners — A plain-language guide for the curious news reader. What the prices actually mean, where to find them, and why you don't need a trading account to read them.
What Are Prediction Markets? — The shorter primer if you just want the quick version.
🟢 How to actually follow them
If you've got the basics and want the practical version — what to read, where, and how often:
How to Follow Prediction Markets Without Having an Account — The data is already public. The hard part is knowing where to look, what to ignore, and how often to check.
Polymarket vs. Kalshi: What's the Difference? — Two of the largest prediction markets in the world look similar from the outside. Their regulators, participant pools, and probabilities often aren't.
🟢 The bigger picture — why now, and how good are these things really?
If you want the case for paying attention, plus an honest read on the limits:
Why Prediction Markets Matter Right Now — The window is open, and it won't be forever.
Are Prediction Markets More Accurate Than Polls? — Often yes — sometimes dramatically. But platform, liquidity, and trader composition complicate the story.
What Prediction Markets Got Right (and Wrong) in 2024 — The directional call on the presidential race held weeks before the polls caught up. The platform-by-platform story is messier — and more interesting.
Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US? — The federal answer is yes. The state answer is complicated. And two federal circuits are now openly split — with the Supreme Court likely next.
Who this is for
You follow politics, economics, or geopolitics closely. You've heard about prediction markets — probably during the 2024 election — and found them interesting. But you don't have time to monitor them yourself. Consensus does that for you.
Who this isn't for (yet)
If you're already trading on Polymarket or Kalshi and want deep signal intelligence, you'll find phase one accessible. The more sophisticated layer is coming — but it's not where we start.
Consensus publishes every week. It's free. If it's useful, forward it to someone who'd find it interesting. And if you have thoughts, questions, or pushback — just hit reply. I read every one.
— Tony
Founder at Consensus
PredictionMarkets.media
@ReadConsensus